983
AXNT20 KNHC 231806 AAA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026
Updated for Special Features of AL95
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite images indicate that
showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
associated with an 1015 area of low pressure, Invest AL95, located
about 348 nautical miles southeast of Bermuda. Scattered to numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between
49W and 62W. Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this
low, north of 28N between 55W and 60W. Further development of the
low is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves
northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next
48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!8fCReQxfo63ghqBQT37Lz7imryTQjmQ40IHxQAN3NUR9NoRkWQRvTzaFq4EalmyDOgZlklwBfEIyzmFh2HPKja0VWO4$
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of
19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from
11N to 13N between 34W and 36W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of
20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to
23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface
by recent ASCAT scatterometer data.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W
south of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela,
moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered
moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W.
A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W
south of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered
showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far
southwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and
near the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
from 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from
the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N
approaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to
10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or
out ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of
Africa.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center
over the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing
for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight
seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore
Veracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to
abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues
to advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely
scattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida
just south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west-
southwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level
trough.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge
building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain
gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week.
A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The
trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche
during the overnight hours.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on
convection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion.
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the
south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these
trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere,
except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N,
where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
present.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue
to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over
the south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside
from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the
basin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following
passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will
quickly move west across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low
pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone
formation.
Elongated surface troughing extends from north of the area well
offshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce, Florida.
Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
on infrared satellite imagery from the northern Bahamas northward
within 120-240 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold
front extends from near the Iberian Peninsula southwestward through
31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low pressure near 30N29W, then
northwestward as a frontal trough. Limited convection is near these
features. Rough seas are found north of the front. Across the
remainder of the basin, high pressure weak ridging dominates with a
1020 high north of the area near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades
are found from 10N to 22N north of the monsoon trough between the
Cabo Verde ISlands and 42W, and in a belt from there to near the low
pressure area, AL95.
Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters.
Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across
the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb
centered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then
accelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low
chance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of
23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades
will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of
a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E
of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.
$$
Lewitsky
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