• Tropical Weather Outlook W and S Pacific

    From Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 15:22:48 2026
    ABPW10 PGTW 221500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
    PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221500Z-230600ZAUG2026//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZAUG2026//
    REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZAUG2026//
    REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2213513AUG2026//
    NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
    RMKS/

    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
    (1) AT 22AUG26 1200Z, TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR
    19.6N 144.8E, APPROXIMATELY 1025 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND
    HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130
    KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) AT 22AUG26 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA) WAS
    LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.0E, APPROXIMATELY 118 NM EAST OF HANOI,
    VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
    HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
    GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER
    DETAILS.
    (3) AT 22AUG26 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WAS
    LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM,
    AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
    HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
    GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN33 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER
    DETAILS.
    (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
    26.5N 123.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
    MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC
    CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH ENHANCED WINDS OVER
    THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION
    PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY
    CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
    KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C),
    AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
    ENSEMBLE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP IT INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH IN
    THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
    WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL
    WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
    (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
    11.4N 135.9E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE
    PARA. 1.A.(3) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
    (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO
    WARNING STATUS.//
    NNNN


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