ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAUG2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200551ZAUG2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 20AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 151.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH OF CHUUK, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.0N 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR FORCE BASE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH ENHANCED
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DENSE CONVECTION
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MOSTLY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.5N 111.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.3E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM
SOUTH OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
POSITIONED OVER HAINAN AND OBSCURED BY WIDESPREAD MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS. A 200159Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND 25 KT
WESTERLY WINDS HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN. WHILE THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND (28-30C) WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE DISTURBANCE
IS OVER LAND, WHICH WILL INHIBIT NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT 95W WILL GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRANSITS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
200600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
33.2N 164.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 969 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 96W WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY
INHIBITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTER, AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96W
TRANSITING NORTHWESTWARD AND DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WEAKENS AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE, WITH
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEING UNLIKELY. FOR HAZARDS AND
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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