WTPN21 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 110.3E TO 21.2N 108.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 110.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.5N 111.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.3E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH
OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) POSITIONED OVER
HAINAN AND OBSCURED BY WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. A 200159Z
METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND 25 KT WESTERLY
WINDS HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN. WHILE THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
(28-30C) WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND,
WHICH WILL INHIBIT NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT 95W WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRANSITS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210600Z.//
NNNN


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