506
AXNT20 KNHC 112025 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026

Corrected Gulf of America forecast

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1744 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave are occurring around 550 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance in the next 48
hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 07N to 19N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 13N between 28W and 40W. Please read the Special Features section
above for more information about this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 52.5W from 07N to 18N,
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N to 15N between 52W and 57W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 13N to 23N, moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are noted over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and over portions of Puerto Rico.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W S of 21N, moving west at
15 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is depicted
from 16N to 18.5N and west of 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and continues
southwestward to 1014 mb low pres near 10N31W to 10N51W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section,
scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N
and east of 21.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...Corrected

A surface ridge extends from a High near 29N71W westward across
the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and
slight seas prevail across the Gulf waters. Typical gentle to
moderate E to SE winds are occurring along the N and W coastal
waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 2 to 4 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are blowing through the
Straits of Florida, producing seas to 5 ft. A surface trough
continues to drift westward across the Bay of Campeche and is
yielding a small cluster of moderate convection offshore Veracruz.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will dominate the
general wind flow pattern across the basin through Sat night. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the basin, with the
exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and
night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan
Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are
expected through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb High and a 1008 mb
Colombian Low is supporting strong to near gale-force winds, and
moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean S of 16N
between 71W and 79W. Fresh NE winds prevail through the Windward
Passage and south of Cuba, while moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail across the NE Caribbean to the Mona Passage in advance of
an approaching tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight
to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across SE and NW portions.
Along and ahead of the tropical wave near 85W a cluster of
moderate to strong convection is impacting the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, the Gulf of Honduras, and most of the coast of
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern
South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over
the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge
will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu allowing for the
trades to significantly expand in coverage to cover the eastern
portion of the basin into early Sat. Winds are expected to reach
near-gale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
each night, except Wed night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to
strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the Windward
Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 19N, anchored by a
1023 mb high centered near 28N43W. Light to gentle winds
generally prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 30W, with
slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S
of 23N and west of 30W, and moderate seas to 7 ft. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds continues from the Canary Islands to 19N to
the east of 37W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Saharan Air dominates
most of the basin N of 15N from Africa through the southern
Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging along 28N
will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu and change
little into Sat. The gradient will tighten over the southern
portion leading to an increase of the trades from the Bahamas
eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to
strong speeds each night. Of note, an area of low pressure is
located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of
this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for
tropical formation of this system within the next 7 days.

$$
KRV

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