ACUS11 KWNS 232048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232048
AZZ000-232315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232048Z - 232315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe wind gusts up to 80 mph
is expected to increase by late afternoon through this evening. A
watch is currently not expected due to the limited areal extent of
the threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows gradually deepening
moist convection along the higher terrain in southeast AZ. To the
immediate west over the lower desert, a hot, well-mixed boundary
layer has developed with steep low/mid-level lapse rates
contributing to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Latest short-term guidance
indicates a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity from
late afternoon into this evening as activity spreads east into the
more favorable thermodynamic environment. A westerly low-level wind
component currently being observed by the Tucson VWP may aid in some
forward propagational characteristics and resultant cold pool
organization with severe wind gusts up to 80 mph being the primary
hazard.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_BIsm-1otVypllQtTxebpj6BvulLB46rF1EuPGJOnxJToyBy6he0Wq3nvb1fniuW8aWg7QWiaGcN2gck6fINb16_3XI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31661251 31921330 32661338 32981279 33081149 32871048
32131016 31541030 31261066 31371145 31661251

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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